So I was thinking this morning about McCain and the chances of him dying while in office if he were to get elected. The reason I was thinking about this is that he is 72yrs old.
So I decided to look up a few facts and play with the numbers.
According to the WHO the probability of a male dying in a given year who is between the ages of 70 - 74 is 0.14766 or 14.766%. And the probability of dying for a male between ages of 75 - 79 is 0.22188 or 22.188%.
Now if McCain were elect he would serve two years in the first age range and the second two in the second age range. This yields an 85.234% chance McCain will survive his 1st year in office, an 72.648% chance of surviving his 2nd yr, an 56.529% chance of surviving his 3rd yr and 43.986% of surviving his 4th yr.
So there is less than a 50% chance of McCain surviving his entire term. That means that Palin becoming president isn't a possibility but a likelihood if McCain is elected.
And now for Obama, he is 47yrs old. According to the WHO the probability of a male dying in a given year who is between the ages of 45 - 49 is 0.02120 or 2.12%. And the probability of dying for a male between ages of 50-54 is 0.03174 or 3.174%.
If Obama were elect he would serve two years in the first age range and the second two in the second age range. This yields an 97.88% chance Obama will survive his 1st year in office, an 95.805% chance of surviving his 2nd yr, an 92.764% chance of surviving his 3rd yr and 89.82% of surviving his 4th yr.
That means it is more than likely that Obama would survive his entire term if elected.
Citation: I pulled ages from wiki and the survival data I pulled from the WHO at this link.
A note on methodology for those that are interested. The WHO probability of dying is created by taking the proportion of people of a specific age that died in that year divided by the total people that are that age. That means that it does take into account anything that can kill people but it does not weight those factors according to personal history. So the probabilities presented would apply to any male of the same age surviving over the same period of time. Also I calculated this by converting the probability of dying to a probability of surviving which is 1 - probability of dying. Then I multiplied the survival probabilities together for each consecutive year which yields the final probability of survival.