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# A Moral Dilemma with Probability?

You have a situation, the exact parameters of which do not matter.

You have a choice to make.

Choice A will CERTAINLY kill 15 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 90 people.

Choice B will CERTAINLY kill 20 people, and has the POTENTIAL to kill *UP TO* an additional 75 people.

You do not know probabilities for these potentials; it could be only 1 or 2, it could be 65 or 70, it could be the full respective 90 and 75.

What do you do, and why??

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### Replies to This Discussion

Megalomania blah blah blah...Jackpot !
Seriously? I mean really? You're 69 years old.

Also, I fail to see how my last post in any way demonstrated a desire to exert power over others or to convey the impression that I'm somehow important.

But apparently, you took the time to read it. Hmmmm....
Annoy is cause.

The theoretical does not take into account the moment. Nightmare coundrums and impossibilities are more for the Stephen King crowd and the superstitiously gullible.

People may break out their slip sticks and all but I refuse to postulate on nonsense.
Choice A.

Ceteris paribus, the mortality rate for potential deaths would have to be greater than 1/3 (33%) for both such that Choice B is preferable. However, given the smaller definite mortality rates, a 33% mortality rate for the remainder doesn't seem likely.

As it stands, in absolute numbers Choice A has a definite mortality rate of ~14%; Choice B has a definite mortality rate of ~21%. If that rate is carried over to estimate the potential mortality rate Choice A has total deaths ~27, Choice B as total deaths ~36.

More information would be nice, but given only the information provided; Choice A is preferable.

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