... the move to “reopen” the country runs the persistent risk of sparking a genuinely catastrophic outcome.
Matthew Yglesias applies new data from Spain to US early reopening prospect.
A new antibody study in Spain discovered ...
... that about 10-14 percent of the population in and around Madrid has antibodies, along with about 7 percent of the population of Barcelona and smaller numbers outside of Spain’s two major cities. Across the country, it averages out to roughly 5 percent.
... about 1.15 percent of those who got infected in Spain ended up dying. [emphasis mine]
This means that despite all of the horror they endured, Spain is very very far from herd immunity. What they suffered wasn't even close to a worst case scenario, Yglesias cautions.
That could lie just over the horizon, as restrictions are relaxed without a vaccine and good therapeutics, unless a country has a great testing, trace, and quarantine system in place.
As I understand it, herd immunity requires a super-majority of the population, over 70% and probably closer to 80. Trying to blindly reopen an economy which has no hard protections (vaccine) and significant segment of the population that feels that they have the right to do as they please only invites more infections and a lot more deaths.
Yesterday we heard on CNN that a disease as contagious as COVID-19 requires 90 to 95% for herd immunity. That's bad news considering that a poll had a third of US saying they wouldn't take an offered vaccine.
Just WHAT the frack are the vaccine refusers thinking?!!? Are they "simply" insisting on personal freedumb at the expense of many actual deaths, thinking and hoping that they and their families will magically be exempt? Or are they imposing their flawed judgment on their fellow citizens that it's supposedly better to be dead than autistic?
(Never mind that that supposed connection to the MMR vaccine was thoroughly debunked, and the fraudulent "researcher" who concocted it had his paper retracted, and lost his medical license.)
A new study shows that when it comes to forcing workers to go back into offices, stores, and factories, almost half the online voices shouting for the “reopening of America” were, and are, bot accounts. Of the accounts that have tweeted most on this topic, more than half are bots. Of the most influential, almost all are bots. And behind the bots … is someone still unknown. [emphasis mine]
Vast manipulation by hidden actors, yup.
That's our current reality.
I use Twitter pretty lightly, mostly looking at tweets highlighted somewhere else online and their associated replies, as well as a few people I know in real life whose personal news I follow and that I exchange direct messages with.
Just looking at my general timeline, things posted or retweeted by people I follow, is a recipe for a vast time sink. (And Twitter, Inc. didn't design it that way by accident!)
A few months ago I read about how manipulators have been turning to the tactic of sharing lots of generic "feel-good" stories from new accounts, getting people to trust and follow them, and only months later turning to their targeted persuasion.
Did you mean feel good stories from news or from new Twitter members?
I meant new Twitter members sharing innocuous feel-good stories to build trust.
As early reopening steamrolls ahead despite rising infections and hospitalizations, don't slip into pandemic fatigue.
“There’s no way to describe how awful this disease is until you see it,” said Dr. Michelle Yu,…
Many of the Covid-19 patients who were on ventilator but survived seemed very frail to the doctors. “People were so weak that they came off a ventilator and three weeks later, they still couldn’t wiggle their toes,” said Kotas.
Many patients who didn't need to go to hospital have lasting health damage.
Many recovered coronavirus patients who did not need to be hospitalized are still facing serious health problems months later, ... While 94 percent say they do not feel as healthy as they did before the viral infection, some 60 percent of this group said they still have breathing symptoms which make it difficult to take a walk, and nearly half are unable to exercise,...
Yet in Sweden a few weeks ago it was a 13% mortality rate or 1 in 8 people contracting COVID-19 died from it.
Though this appears to be mostly among the elderly.
I missed that news. Thanks.