... the move to “reopen” the country runs the persistent risk of sparking a genuinely catastrophic outcome.
Matthew Yglesias applies new data from Spain to US early reopening prospect.
A new antibody study in Spain discovered ...
... that about 10-14 percent of the population in and around Madrid has antibodies, along with about 7 percent of the population of Barcelona and smaller numbers outside of Spain’s two major cities. Across the country, it averages out to roughly 5 percent.
... about 1.15 percent of those who got infected in Spain ended up dying. [emphasis mine]
This means that despite all of the horror they endured, Spain is very very far from herd immunity. What they suffered wasn't even close to a worst case scenario, Yglesias cautions.
That could lie just over the horizon, as restrictions are relaxed without a vaccine and good therapeutics, unless a country has a great testing, trace, and quarantine system in place.
As I understand it, herd immunity requires a super-majority of the population, over 70% and probably closer to 80. Trying to blindly reopen an economy which has no hard protections (vaccine) and significant segment of the population that feels that they have the right to do as they please only invites more infections and a lot more deaths.
Yesterday we heard on CNN that a disease as contagious as COVID-19 requires 90 to 95% for herd immunity. That's bad news considering that a poll had a third of US saying they wouldn't take an offered vaccine.
Just WHAT the frack are the vaccine refusers thinking?!!? Are they "simply" insisting on personal freedumb at the expense of many actual deaths, thinking and hoping that they and their families will magically be exempt? Or are they imposing their flawed judgment on their fellow citizens that it's supposedly better to be dead than autistic?
(Never mind that that supposed connection to the MMR vaccine was thoroughly debunked, and the fraudulent "researcher" who concocted it had his paper retracted, and lost his medical license.)