Martin Longman's caution, about how polls mislead, is sobering. He says that far more people are willing to vote for an outright crazy candidate than are willing to admit that they'll vote for him.
The Crazifaction Factor meme came from screenwriter John Rodgers' 2005 blog examining the "2004 Illinois senate race that launched Barack Hussein Obama to national prominence". Obama's opponent was Alan Keys, an out of state African-American who .... [from Rodger's blog]
.... was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.
Once this post went viral, the 27% floor became known as either the “Crazification Factor” or the “Alan Keyes Constant.” Over time, it’s been remarkable to see how many different unpopular opinions bottom out at approximately 27% in surveys.
But I don’t think the number is correct for presidential campaigns. With the stakes so much higher than a mere Senate race, I think raw partisanship has more influence. So, if we ask how low Donald Trump’s approval number can go or how badly he might do in the popular vote in 2020, I think we need to project something closer to 37%. [emphasis mine]
Essentially, at least a third of us in the US, who are competent and concerned enough to register and go to the polls, will vote for visibly impaired, batshit crazy candidates.
Chauncey DeVega inteviewed Terry Heaten, former evangelical insider, giving details of how this works.
"... the Trump phenomenon ... he would never have been elected had he not been able to recruit people for whom his policies would be harmful. But many of these voters consider their faith first." No secular arguments or reason can convince white Christian Nationalists, Heaton says. They only "hear" messages in their Biblical world view. They believe God chose Trump as a tool, the way he used King Cyrus to do good. They easily dismiss anything horrible that Trump does, because he's just God's means of replacing our horrible multi-racial secular democracy with a pure glorious white-dominated Christian nation.
Even if Trump were a diagnosed psychotic who started a nuclear war, 37% would re-elect him.
image source, text based on articles
Oh! Yes! This is appropriate! The Bull of Wall Stree looks frustrated and angry with excellent members of his cabinet and replaces them with con-men and -women and then wonders why their departments fail to meet the challenges facing them. #TrumpBullOfWallStreet lashes out at vulnerable people, women, wage-workers, people of color, immigrants, military dependents, the poor. He threatens those who do not use their power and backs down when others call him on his values. He riles the weak with wild threats and energizes chaos.
He is not a clown, he is a Bull of Wall Street charging red flags.
What a country.
So 37% can be counted on to vote for a non-rational candidate who promises to go against their every interest.
It's a wonder we ever elect a sane, rational, capable candidate.
Your boat is a floating Potemkin village. Those shiny and shimmering gadgets drew me like a pagan to night lights.
There I was onto a school of smelt 7 miles from shore when water began to collect at an alarming rate. I wanted to gun those 150 horses to safety but she had nearly sunk whispering to me..I am not sea worthy. W smelt affixed to my belt I swam so long I am svelt.
I am suing you for attempted murder and will ask for punitive damages. Your meretricious and vicious ploys scams and noise annoys and destroys but boys will be boys.
Why is the cat quizzical like that knowing jerry's boat is unlikely to float?
To sound the alarm within the zone of harm is to disarm Jerry and his fleet of flotsam..
I'm surprised that anyone who ever watches late night TV can ever be for Donald Trump. The most recent thing here involving Dorian and a sharpie pen is simply batshit crazy. Then Trump (who can never just let something go) actually had a newsman come to the WH to insist again that Dorian could have hit Alabama. Trumpworld is Bizarro World and all of this is insanity. Maybe the supporters take it as so insane that it is all made up. Who knows how they handle it?
Which shows why it's crucial that we all vote. The weirdos will; we, the sane, must at least counteract their votes. And no, voting for anybody for President besides the two real candidates isn't voting. It's flag waving, fireworks shooting, yelling and flapping -- but it has no impact.
In practice, only by voting for whatever Democrat won, or was awarded, the nomination, has any effect.
It's not a good system; in fact, it's a pretty lousy system.
But it's what we've got.
Jerry...I don't vote unless it concerns your boat..which is not Sea worthy.
1. POPULAR VOTE ONLY
2. PSYCH EVAL ALL CANDIDATES
3. KNOWLEDGE, CRITICAL THINKING, ETHICS EXAMS AIRED PUBLICLY
4. BOAT MUST BE SEAWORTHY
Frankie, I'm not sure what your extensive metaphor means. Boats at landlocked Windsor Locks, CT? Minor outlying islands?
I agree with platforms 1 to 3 for political candidates. But many important issues are unrelated to that narrow set.
Ruth, no intention of making a comprehensive list of reforms.
Popular vote is obvious.
I want candidates to be licensed. It is pure folly to allow any old Trump to run. Can't practice law..medicine or cut hair without a license..without passing a test that establishes competence. Otherwise an incompetent hairdresser might do some harm.
On other hand u can be Donald and avoid establishing competence for a position that is arguably paramount. A number 1 job!
Experts in relevant fields questioning potential candidates who are not prepped and are on stage for all to view. The present President has made it clear that certain disorders or personality types are inimical to the interests of the citizenry. We obviously cannot tolerate another narcissist. I would not use such a disorder to disqualify the candidate but I would make the evaluations public knowledge. Same goes for ethics. Ethicists to question candidates using hypotheticals but the audience simply forms judgment. On other hand ignorance is a basis to be DENIED. The force of custom in subverting the better path is quite alarming. How fucking stupid are we?
Pardon me for pointing out the obvious problem, but just HOW are we going to get those changes enacted in the current political climate? The Democrats would need veto-proof majorities in both houses of Congress and more importantly, the cohesion and will to actually pass them. On top of that would be establishing the parameters and requirements for the licensing process in a bipartisan fashion. Oh, to be a fly on the wall in THAT committee while in session!
One more issue, and this one is crucial: removing Mitch McConnell. It's possible that 2020 may see the unseating of McConnell, not just as Senate Majority Leader but as senator, period, with a bit of luck. Right now, he's not just a fly in the ointment – more like a bombardier beetle! – and implementing ANY sort of change would require his ouster from his current position. And if I may mix a metaphor, that's one chicken I won't count until I've seen him fricasseed!