Martin Longman's caution, about how polls mislead, is sobering. He says that far more people are willing to vote for an outright crazy candidate than are willing to admit that they'll vote for him.
The Crazifaction Factor meme came from screenwriter John Rodgers' 2005 blog examining the "2004 Illinois senate race that launched Barack Hussein Obama to national prominence". Obama's opponent was Alan Keys, an out of state African-American who .... [from Rodger's blog]
.... was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him. They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That’s crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% Crazification Factor in any population.
Once this post went viral, the 27% floor became known as either the “Crazification Factor” or the “Alan Keyes Constant.” Over time, it’s been remarkable to see how many different unpopular opinions bottom out at approximately 27% in surveys.
But I don’t think the number is correct for presidential campaigns. With the stakes so much higher than a mere Senate race, I think raw partisanship has more influence. So, if we ask how low Donald Trump’s approval number can go or how badly he might do in the popular vote in 2020, I think we need to project something closer to 37%. [emphasis mine]
Essentially, at least a third of us in the US, who are competent and concerned enough to register and go to the polls, will vote for visibly impaired, batshit crazy candidates.
Chauncey DeVega inteviewed Terry Heaten, former evangelical insider, giving details of how this works.
"... the Trump phenomenon ... he would never have been elected had he not been able to recruit people for whom his policies would be harmful. But many of these voters consider their faith first." No secular arguments or reason can convince white Christian Nationalists, Heaton says. They only "hear" messages in their Biblical world view. They believe God chose Trump as a tool, the way he used King Cyrus to do good. They easily dismiss anything horrible that Trump does, because he's just God's means of replacing our horrible multi-racial secular democracy with a pure glorious white-dominated Christian nation.
Even if Trump were a diagnosed psychotic who started a nuclear war, 37% would re-elect him.
image source, text based on articles
Lately several articles are using 40% to describe Trump's cult. <eye roll>
Another thing of note is that previously I read that Trump supporters were those who had this anger and that Trump allowed them to act on that anger. OK, I get that. It certainly looked that way.
What I read now has changed this somewhat to mean that Trump is them. His actions and beliefs are the same as theirs. They like Trump because he instantly declares how things are and fights to make it so. This is Trump doing what his supporters want him to do even if it is wrong. They don't think it is wrong because as previously said by a Florida Trumper, "he is not hurting the right people."
It is a sad world when we think we have to have government that hurts anyone.
Trumps approval hit 49%, his highest! How insane is that.
Trump’s approval rating among his fellow GOP voters now stands at 94% percent, 6 points higher than registered by the last Gallup poll.
And 42% of independents approve of the job he is doing, up 3 points.
Trump’s approval by Democrats fell to 7% — 3 points lower than a prior survey.