Cody Fenwick describes the worst case if Trump forces early opening of restrictions in Here’s how the coronavirus crisis could truly spiral out of control.
The factories that should be producing the equipment that might save doctors’ will be too understaffed to function, let alone increase production. The trucks will slow to a trickle. The groceries will close.”
This is where the real danger is. If people in essential industries start getting sick too frequently, and too many of them are terrified to go to work, then we start to face real shortages of essential services and items. This means the crisis isn’t just a medical crisis or an economic crisis, but a societal crisis. Shortages of necessities means distrust and chaos across society.
when we’re staring at the face of a crisis with many unknowns, we should be aware of the risks...
I woke up from my usual PTSD symptom, a teaching nightmare, after having read Fenwick's piece a few hours before bed. But medical personnel will have far worse PTSD, if they even survive.
I'm constantly angry at Trump. He's like a 3-year old,"Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?"
As with too many other things, Trump can't be bothered to see that Some Things Just CANNOT BE RUSHED. Illnesses run their course at a given pace, no faster or slower; antibodies don't form overnight; physiologies require time to recover. Meanwhile, Donnie is doing his best Verruca Salt imitation: he wants what he wants and he wants it NOW.
The one saving grace in all of this is that there are churches that insist on congregating in some states even as lockdown orders go out. Presuming that there is some fallout from these poorly considered gatherings, it is possible that the wisdom of waiting out the Coronavirus will finally be seen. Also worthy of note is that most "shelter-in-place" orders have come from the local or state levels (since Donnie can't be bothered to issue a nationwide order). Those orders cannot be rescinded at the federal level but only by those governments that issued them. It may be that, if we do dodge this bullet, it will be because of the governors of New York and Ohio and California and those others which were bold enough to secure their states early and won't relax those restrictions until the data tells them it's safe to do so.
They are the ones who will get us out of this and not Donald John Trump.
Mark Sumner spells out how Trump's plan to open the country by Easter would likely kill close to 29 million, "an action that would be on the same scale as the holocaust".
He compares COVID-19 to the H1N1 epidemic, which killed 12,469 in the US.
- The transmission rate for the H1N1 flu was between 1.4 and 1.6.
- The hospitalization rate for the H1N1 flu was 0.5%.
- The case fatality rate for the H1N1 flu was 0.02%.
On every one of those values, COVID-19 is enormously worse.
The only way to confer herd immunity for COVID-19 at this point is to simply infect enough Americans to bring the transmission rate below 1. That’s what it means to “reopen” America—stop trying to slow transmission through isolation and count on immunity to do the job.
But the scope of that proposal is far bigger and far more awful than it seems,...
... a much higher percentage of the population will need to be immune to effectively contain the spread of the disease. Probably more like 60-70% rather than 35%.
Taking this approach would require 30 million hospital beds. That’s 29.1 million more than we have.
... fatality rate ... Something very close to 29 million. Because it would so overwhelm the national health care system that the system might as well not exist.
What Donald Trump is suggesting isn’t a cull of people in nursing homes. It’s the outright and absolutely preventable slaughter of 1 to 10% of the entire U.S. population. [yellow and bold emphasis mine]
Satire from the Borowitz Report:
By Andy Borowitz
March 26, 2020
"In a controlled experiment documented by the study, a seventy-nine-year-old man with intelligence was placed in close proximity to a seventy-three-year-old man without it for a period of several weeks to see if even a trace of his knowledge and expertise could be transmitted.
After weeks of near-constant exposure, however, the seventy-three-year-old man appeared “a hundred per cent asymptomatic” of intelligence, the researchers found.
... The researchers, however, left open the possibility that intelligence might be transmissible to other people, just not to ... the subject of the experiment..."