Wuhan Coronavirus, also known as 2019 nCoV, has a current death rate of 2-3%. This isn't as high as SARS, but similar to 1918 Spanish influenza. In Wuhan the number of infected is doubling every 6 days. Containment is complicated by the fact that patients can transmit infection before they know they're sick, before any symptoms. Mild infections resemble the flu. Patients can recover from symptoms, feel well, and still be highly contagious. Not all patients have symptoms, and asymptomatic people are potentially contagious. How infectious the dead bodies are is unknown.

Each patient infects 2.2 to 2.5 others. It's about as transmissible as Spanish flu. Ebola infects 2, but it's more lethal. It will not be controlled until each patient infects less than 1 other.

It appears to be out of control in China. Concerns are that countries with "fragile" public health sectors could become secondary sources for global infection. It might become endemic in some areas. The earliest any vaccine might be available is this Summer.




So far the youngest patient to die was 39. It mostly kills older people with health conditions such as high blood pressure or diabetes.

As a vulnerable person by age and health, I consider Wuhan coronavirus a personal threat.

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Comparison of the spread of this epidemic with others recently.

Oh! my goodness!

Total worldwide cases excluding China and Diamond Princess

Thumbnail version

In my view this represents mostly countries such as Singapore, South Korea, and Italy which have been doing good testing and contact tracing. Lots of hidden infections which have never been officially confirmed by tests, including right here in the U S of A. We don't have the capacity, and aren't being transparent about that.

Much happening. I'll excerpt quotes u/Braydo25 at reddit's coronavirus subreddit, because he says it better than I could.

USA CDC has only publicly announced testing the equivalent of 1.2 people for every 1,000,000 Americans to date (414 people tested since this started...) 

The data is extremely clear now based on all the other countries this is spreading in just from the sample set of case confirmations with consistent testing protocol - infection growth is at least 13% to 20% EACH DAY (Flu is something near 3% to 5% each day for comparison) A 4x higher compound growth rate cascades situation severity exponentially faster.

 Go ahead and model compound growth at those rates, accounting for a median 14 day recovery period per person, over a 6 month period, accounting for starting from 1 infected person against the total US population and tell me where that lands you.. It's catastrophic if nothing changes - hospitals are going to become overwhelmed and it's not going to be something there will be time to prepare for.

Exponential functions like what this is following are going to make it all hit HARD and FAST. We're talking a less than 45 day differential from "everything's fine, no one's sick" to it seeming like "society is on the brink of collapse, everyone is sick, hospitals are overwhelmed".

And to top it all off, what do we get from the WHO today?...

More or less: "Sorry guys, the word Pandemic doesn't exist anymore so we're not gonna call what's happening that even though that's the term we've been openly using leading up to the point we are now in all our live press briefings until today. Don't worry, it's only 'emergency'" - WHO [emphasis mine]

That 45 days from seeming normality to society-is-on-the-brink isn't far from what happened in Wuhan, South Korea, Iran, or Italy.

Also relevant:
Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response 
(Laurie Garrett, Foreign Policy, Jan. 31)

"In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure... If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is..."

(read much more!)

(btw, Ad Fontes Media's Media Bias Chart rates Foreign Policy as "neutral or balanced" regarding left- or rightwing bias, and "reliable for news" and "high in analysis / opinion content".)

Excuse me! "pandemic doesn't exist anymore?" Who said that? 

Excuse me again! "Don't worry!" 

Pandemic: (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" and δῆμος demos "people") "is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or worldwide" i.e.

"pandemics, such as smallpox and tuberculosis. One of the most devastating pandemics was the Black Death, which killed an estimated 75 - 200 million people in the 14th century. Some recent pandemics include: HIV, Spanish flu, the 2009 flu pandemic and H1N1.

~ Wikipedia, Pandemic

According to recent studies, the Black Death was not caused by rats spreading fleas infected with the bubonic plague but by "travelers unaware of their infection who moved between communities in search of work." Traveling around the country was not easy during the Middle Ages. Their study suggests the cause and effect of the Middle Ages pandemic were traveling humans infected with "hemorrhagic plague". 

The Middle Ages Plague wiped out nearly half of the population in medieval times. 

~ Jo Revill, 16 May 2004. Black Death blamed on man, not rats. The Guardian Weekly. 


U.S. CDC: "We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly."


"Americans should prepare for “significant disruption” to their lives as a result of the virus."


Preprint for Cell Journal suggests possible treatment option.

SARS-CoV-2 cell entry depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and is blocked by...

49 The recent emergence of the novel, pathogenic SARS-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in
50 China and its rapid national and international spread pose a global health emergency. Cell
51 entry of coronaviruses depends on binding of the viral spike (S) proteins to cellular
52 receptors and on S protein priming by host cell proteases. Unravelling which cellular
53 factors are used by SARS-CoV-2 for entry might provide insights into viral transmission
54 and reveal therapeutic targets. Here, we demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 uses the SARS55 CoV receptor, ACE2, for entry and the serine protease TMPRSS2 for S protein priming. A
56 TMPRSS2 inhibitor approved for clinical use blocked entry and might constitute a
57 treatment option. Finally, we show that the sera from convalescent SARS patients cross58 neutralized SARS-2-S-driven entry. Our results reveal important commonalities between
59 SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV infection and identify a potential target for antiviral
60 intervention [emphasis mine]

I sent an email to our county public health department, to the person in charge of emergency preparation. I quoted this from the article below, from 1918 flu data.

 ...cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%)... 

Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 ...

I also added:

As a Bucks County resident couple, who are both 75 and with multiple health issues, we urge you to prepare now for early and sustained public health interventions to slow COVID-19. Let's not be merely reactive. For us this is life and death. Thanks.

You might want to consider reminding your own local officials in charge of public health pandemic preparation to work on their mitigation protocols now.

Obama’s response to Ebola epidemic in 2014, when Ebola broke out in West Africa, President Barack Obama:

*responded to the outbreak overseas, 

*protected Americans at home, 

*involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, 

  • appointed an ”epidemic czar” inside the White House, 
  • clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, 
  • placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. 
  • *set up a permanent epidemic monitoring and command group inside the White House National Security Council (NSC) 
  • set up another in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—
  • Instructed both to follow the scientific and public health leads of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the diplomatic advice of the State Department.

On the domestic front, Obama

  • assured the public health and safety is a local matter, executed by a state, county, and city departments, 
  • Some cities have large budgets, clear regulations, epidemic experiences, medical and public health talent, 
  • much of the U.S., on the local level, struggle with underfunded agencies, understaffing, and no genuine epidemic experience. 
  • Large and small, U.S. localities rely on the federal government.

Which of these policies and proctors did Trump initiate? 

If yes, which ones?

If no why not?

A few words about R0 and containment measures. 

The basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus is between 4.7 and 7 according to the calculations of different epidemiologists, which is different from the actual reproduction number calculated by the WHO (2.5), the difference being that the number base corresponds to the situation without isolation measures, and the actual number changes depending on the implementation of different isolation measures.


On the Diamond Princess, before any countermeasures, R0 is calculated to have been 14.8. Isolation and quarantine reduced it to 1.78.[preprint accepted manuscript]

In other words, while diseases differ in intrinsic transmissability, isolation measures also make an enormous difference in how quickly the number of infected doubles. 

Cryptic transmission has been occurring for weeks in Italy 

According to the assessment of Italian researchers, the corona virus from China circulated "unnoticed" in Italy for weeks before the first cases were detected. The pathogen may have been in the country since mid-January,... 

 and in Washington State

This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks.

Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections.

R0 is at its worst when COVID-19 circulates absent all countermeasures. When the public feels safe. Whenever governments discount or outright lie about the pandemic they enable the greatest damage possible. 

University of Hong Kong’s medical faculty dean Gabriel Leung says the only reason WHO has not used word [pandemic] is ‘public fear’. 

“Technically this is a pandemic." source

image source [text mine]




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