Wuhan Coronavirus, also known as 2019 nCoV, has a current death rate of 2-3%. This isn't as high as SARS, but similar to 1918 Spanish influenza. In Wuhan the number of infected is doubling every 6 days. Containment is complicated by the fact that patients can transmit infection before they know they're sick, before any symptoms. Mild infections resemble the flu. Patients can recover from symptoms, feel well, and still be highly contagious. Not all patients have symptoms, and asymptomatic people are potentially contagious. How infectious the dead bodies are is unknown.

Each patient infects 2.2 to 2.5 others. It's about as transmissible as Spanish flu. Ebola infects 2, but it's more lethal. It will not be controlled until each patient infects less than 1 other.

It appears to be out of control in China. Concerns are that countries with "fragile" public health sectors could become secondary sources for global infection. It might become endemic in some areas. The earliest any vaccine might be available is this Summer.




So far the youngest patient to die was 39. It mostly kills older people with health conditions such as high blood pressure or diabetes.

As a vulnerable person by age and health, I consider Wuhan coronavirus a personal threat.

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The data shows that the majority of European countries are about to face a battle identical to the Italian one. The surge in cases in France, Germany and Spain follows the same trend as in Italy. It's just 7-8 days behind.”

The more promptly containment measures are implemented, the more effective they are,” he added. "Considering this, it's necessary to act immediately, because tomorrow will already be late.”

“Other European countries should learn from Italy's experience - and mistakes.”

'Learn from our mistakes': Italians plead for other countries to ta...

An excellent article comparing other country's coronavirus responses to the US. "Our health care system is a bitter joke by Taiwanese or Italian standards. We do not even have universal coverage, and what coverage we have is a usurious, fragmented, Kafkaesque nightmare that routinely bankrupts people who get sick." 

America has one of the world's worst coronavirus responses

Great visualization of how flu and the coronavirus differ in spread. 

The mortality rate for coronavirus is nowhere near that high. When the wind stops blowing it will come in under one percent. But that is no comfort if you are in a vulnerable class. 

Nobody knows how many died after world war 1s nightmare virus. I have seen so many estimates ranging from  15 mill to 100 mill. But after it mutated it was way way more deadly than the present pandemic. It may have been 10 percent and it was lethal for young and healthy victims. 

Iceland tested thousands of citizens, even if they had no symptoms. About half who tested positive were asymptomatic.

“Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,...”

Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no ...

Ten iterations:

Linear growth:           2,  4,  6,    8,  10,  12,     14,     16,     18,       20, etc.
Exponential growth:  2,  4,  8,  16,  32,  64,   128,   256,   512,   1024, etc.

Take COVID-19 death numbers with a grain of salt. "... Italy, Spain and France — are not routinely testing for coronavirus among elderly residents who fall ill in nursing homes or even those who eventually die there, including those who suffered from symptoms of the disease."

Nursing homes in Europe struggle with pandemic's uncounted dead

Here's a sample of Italian under-reporting:

This is the result of the analysis carried out by L’Eco di Bergamo and InTwig using the data provided by local municipalities. Versione italiana.

What the official figures don’t say. They don’t say that in March 2020 more than 5.400 people have died in Bergamo province, 4.500 of which due to coronavirus. Six times more than the previous year. Of only 2.060 of them, the «official» certified deaths caused by Covid-19 in the local hospitals (data as at yesterday), we know everything: age, gender, pre-existing conditions. We do not know anything about the other 2.500. Many of them are old people, who died at home or in assisted residential homes. In spite of the unmistakable symptoms, as recorded by physicians and relatives, they were never tested for the disease. On their death certificate you can just read: interstitial pneumonia.

Coronavirus, the real death toll: 4.500 victims in one month in the...

The CDC now says coronavirus spreads 4 times further than the 6 foot distancing recommendation.

Coronavirus might spread much farther than 6 feet in the air. CDC s...

"The study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that under the right conditions, liquid droplets from sneezes, coughs and just exhaling can travel more than 26 feet..."

Related to the Tiger which tested positive at the Bronx zoo.

Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and different domestic anima...

"We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and
ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory
droplets." [bold mine]

Were you warned to keep cats away from babies because the cats would "take away the breath of infants?"

When I read your piece, Ruth, that thought from a deep, dark place in my memory box popped up. 

Great news! You're unlikely to get COVID-19 from a pet.

Since mid-February, IDEXX has tested over 5,000 specimens for the COVID-19 virus. The specimens were submitted to IDEXX Reference Laboratories for respiratory tests of sick cats, dogs and horses in 17 different countries. To date, IDEXX has found no positive results in pets for the COVID-19 virus, suggesting that dogs and cats living with infected people generally remain uninfected, except in rare and isolated cases.

COVID-19 Customer Resources




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