Wuhan Coronavirus, also known as 2019 nCoV, has a current death rate of 2-3%. This isn't as high as SARS, but similar to 1918 Spanish influenza. In Wuhan the number of infected is doubling every 6 days. Containment is complicated by the fact that patients can transmit infection before they know they're sick, before any symptoms. Mild infections resemble the flu. Patients can recover from symptoms, feel well, and still be highly contagious. Not all patients have symptoms, and asymptomatic people are potentially contagious. How infectious the dead bodies are is unknown.

Each patient infects 2.2 to 2.5 others. It's about as transmissible as Spanish flu. Ebola infects 2, but it's more lethal. It will not be controlled until each patient infects less than 1 other.

It appears to be out of control in China. Concerns are that countries with "fragile" public health sectors could become secondary sources for global infection. It might become endemic in some areas. The earliest any vaccine might be available is this Summer.




So far the youngest patient to die was 39. It mostly kills older people with health conditions such as high blood pressure or diabetes.

As a vulnerable person by age and health, I consider Wuhan coronavirus a personal threat.

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Coronavirus checklist: 100-plus disinfectants that may kill coronav...

The Center for Biocide Chemistries has created a list of more than 100 ready-to-use, dilutable and wipeable biocidal products that the EPA has approved as effective at killing viruses like the coronavirus. CBC has verified the list of products, all of which are in compliance with EPA’s “emerging viral pathogen” guidance for antimicrobial products.

If you're over 60 and have health issues, it's time to try ordering groceries instead of going to the supermarket in person. Coronavirus: World Health Organisation boss tells over-60s to avoid...

The head of the World Health Organisation has urged everyone over the age of 60 to avoid crowded areas including trains, buses and even supermarkets to prevent catching coronavirus.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also urged people in this age group to skip routine appointments at GP surgeries and in hospitals.

The WHO director general told his 500,000 Twitter followers: "If you are 60+, or have an underlying condition like cardiovascular disease, a respiratory condition or diabetes, you have a higher risk of developing severe #COVID19. Try to avoid crowded areas, or places where you might interact with people who are sick." 
[WHO spokesman Dr Margaret Harris] "Rather than going to the shops to get things, think about everything you can order remotely," she said.

For people near metropolitan US areas, this New York City comparison might prove helpful.

Here’s where to shop for low-cost groceries delivered to your door

Apparently some online grocery services allow you to give detailed instructions.

How To Order Groceries Online Like A BOSS

That grocery-ordering advice sounds sensible. "Pretend your shopper is a 13-year-old boy who doesn't cook, who doesn't eat fruit or vegetables, and who doesn't know how to pick them out."

And the article pointed out that some services offer curbside grocery pickup, that give you more flexibility in your schedule. (And let you dash in for the one or two items you've forgotten, if avoiding crowds isn't a factor.)

When I lived in Spokane, I shopped mostly at Rosauer's south hill grocery where a very experienced employee took home delivery orders. She was on a first-name basis with most of her customers and knew our preferences.

Now, L&L and Michelle shop the Newport area stores and they know the best prices, the best qualities of vegetables, and the best meats. They have quite a route they take on food shopping days; no one place has the best quality or prices of everything. I have no idea if there is home delivery and I doubt it. 

I boycott Amazon because of what I hear from their employees; printed pieces support my impression.  Worse than Wal-Mart: Amazon's sick brutality and secret history of...

I talk to Costco employees and they seem to be happy with their employer and printed pieces support my impression. Employee Relations Best Practices: Costco's Approach to HR

Good point, Joan.

Italian doctors have warned medics across Europe to “get ready” for coronavirus in a letter revealing up to 10 per cent of all those infected with coronavirus need intensive care, with hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

In the note, sent to the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, critical care experts Professor Maurizio Cecconi, Professor Antonio Pesenti and Professor Giacomo Grasselli, from the University of Milan, revealed how difficult it had been to treat coronavirus patients.

They said: “We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our intensive care units (ICUs), in the range of 10 per cent of all positive patients.

‘Get ready’: Italian doctors warn Europe of coronavirus impact on h...

This goes along with a caution that when the Chinese said 80% of cases were "mild", their definition of mild wasn't the usual meaning.

Abraar Karan MD, MPH, DTM&H@AbraarKaran

4/ Another surprise: the Chinese data where the 80% “mild” cases number comes from —that was not a “mild cold”.

That was: you have a fever, possibly even a full pneumonia. Not your run-of-the-mill sniffles.

“Severe” (which was ~15%) meant you were on oxygen or a ventilator.

Malicious malware in a coronavirus map!!!!!!!!!!   Graham Cluley says:

"From the look of the screenshot, the website that Malwarebytes is warning about is at corona-virus-map [dot] com. That domain was registered at the beginning of February 2020 via GoDaddy, and is set up to use nameservers based in Russia.

The Johns Hopkins map can be viewed online at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40...

My assumption is that the dodgy site is scraping information from the Johns Hopkins map."

Coronavirus map used to spread malware

Sobering chart comparing coronavirus daily increase among countries. Note that the US daily average increase is greater than 33%. Could not hotlink, but the full size is better anyway.

I wish these charts had the time scaled at a consistent rate, 100, 200, 300. 

Or 1,000, 2,000, 3,000. The time scale skews the data and changes the degrees of change. I'll go on a hunt and see if I can find a scale to my liking. 

Thanks, Ruth, for this chart. It does tell a dreadful story of exponential change. 

COVID-19 bad news, all around. <sigh>

1. "... more than 10 percent of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200316143313.htm

Looking at this from the perspective of two fully tested populations, two estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic infected are 17.9% [from the Diamond Princess population], and 33.3% from Japanese citizens evacuated from Wuhan. 


A foundation chaired by Nino Cartabellotta tested an entire village, Vo 'Euganeo with 3,ooo residents, found "between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". ""the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases..." By isolating EVERY infected resident the number of patients fell from 88 to 7 in 7 to 10 days.

"For Romagnani, what is now crucial in the battle against the virus is "trying to find asymptomatic people who are already infected because nobody fears or isolates them. This is particularly true for categories such as doctors and nurses who frequently develop an infection. asymptomatic by continuing to spread the infection between them and their patients." [bold mine]" 


2. To prevent crude lethality rates close to 10%, as in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, due to hospitals being completely overwhelmed (reduced to leaving those over 60 or with co-morbid conditions to die in corridors, so healthier patients can use limited ventilators), strict suppression measures must be instituted immediately. "The recent surge in cases in Spain, France and Germany shows that for all European countries the battle is similar to the Italian one, with a delay of 7-9 days." 


3. The young are not immune. "About 41 percent of Americans have a higher risk of developing serious illness if infected with the new coronavirus, according to a survey released Friday by the Kaiser Family Foundation." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/third-mar-a-lago-guest-tests-p...

"Of the 96 corona patients who are in intensive care in the Netherlands on Monday evening, about half are under 50 years old,… that it has to do with carnival…." https://nos.nl/artikel/2327328-veel-jonge-corona-patienten-op-inten...

Of a dozen recovered patients, two to three had a 20-30% drop of lung function on follow up. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074...

4. Immunity to COVID-19 is likely to last only a few months after recovery. I'd read about the 4 common cold coronaviruses producing limited immunity. Though there's no research on COVID-19,

"….in MERS, people tend to have a high degree of immunity soon after recovering, which then weakens over the next 1–2 years. This continues until you eventually end up with background-levels of detectable antibodies against the virus. In some cases however, the presence of antibodies could only be detected for 1–2 months. … it seems likely that novel coronaviruses lead to strong initial immunity that quickly goes away, followed by mild infections and that this is how they maintain themselves." [Ralph Baric, PhD — Department of Microbiology and Immunology, UNC]


5. "— Super-spreaders are a very serious problem with SARS-CoV-2

Dr. Baric — “In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than 15 seconds they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”

Dr. Rich Condit — “Wow, that’s like Measles”

Dr. Baric— “That’s like Measles”

We do not know why children under 9 do not have issues with the virus. They have very high concentrations of virus & there’s no obvious reason they should not transmit efficiently to those around them. Not enough work has been done to determine if children can be super-spreaders nor what their burden of spread is. X-rays of children’s lungs show that they are clearly diseased & clearly infected, but they don’t show any symptoms." (same podcast as in #4 above, yellow emphasis mine)

Infectious particles are released just by breathing, even more by talking, and singing is as bad as coughing. Some individuals produce an order of magnitude more aerosols than the general population and it's unknown how they differ. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z

Don't expect immediate improvement in the pandemic from lockdowns. It took 3 weeks for new infections to begin slowing down in Hubei, with far stronger measures. 

"In a small study of about 80 corona patients, those who smoked were 14 times more likely to have serious illness." 

Smokers appear to be at higher risk from coronavirus – expert




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