In 37 years we could be living with 3°C higher global temperature. This old news is just now sinking in for me. Does that mean we might pass the 2°C mark in 13 years or so? I could could live to see us go from dangerous to extremely dangerous climate change.
Global temperatures could rise as much as 3°C by 2050, according to the researchers of a huge simulation project.
The project, which ran almost 10,000 climate simulations on volunteers’ computers, warns that even with moderate emissions the world could cross the critical 2°C barrier at some point this century with unabated emissions.
This shows a potential for a faster rate of warming than has been previously predicted.
The study, published in Nature Geosciences was run through the BBC Climate Change Experiment, climateprediction.net and aimed to explore a wide range of possible futures and get a handle on the uncertainties of the climate system.
The low end of their range is similar to the predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report.
The high end, however, is somewhat above the range in their analysis.
Experts warn that 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels could trigger runaway climate change.
This should be sent en masse to the 2 billion Asians who don't give a shit and just want their own cars, air conditioners, and all the niceties of Western middle-class life. Also copy all NASCAR officials and the airline and tourist industries (jet planes get 0.6 mpg). With so many forces blithely increasing emissions, there's just no way climate change is going to be slowed down, much less stopped.
Even well intentioned people who care about climate change fly to visit relatives and friends without apparent guilt. I try to encourage them to skype instead.
Yesterday we saw an episode of Royal Pains in which a bachelor party flew to Las Vegas from the Hamptons in a private jet, and the bride and her friend flew there too, because airports at the longer trip they'd planned for the bridal party was snowed out. This was treated as perfectly normal fun partying. Environmental costs were completely ignored.
Blithe -that's the attitude.
Even if life is going to get harder, we can't stop having children all together. We just need restraint.