A new highest-resolution climate model for atmosphere and ocean simulates cyclone/hurricane/typhoon formation, capturing the past. When scientists simulated the effect a middle-of-the-road global warming on our near future, POW!
… when the researchers then moved from simulating the hurricanes of the late 20th century to those of the future under a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario, they found big changes.
What's more, the research found that storms of super-extreme intensity, with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph, also became more common. While it only found nine of these storms in a simulation of the late 20th century climate, it found 32 for the period from 2016 to 2035 and 72 for the period from 2081 to 2100.
There is no “Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, but …
Recently, some scientists have begun speaking about a possible “Category 6" designation,…
…, some recent storms would qualify, most notably Patricia but also 2013's Super Typhoon Haiyan and several others.
… the new research finds that rapid intensification appears to be the key mechanism driving stronger storms in a warmer climate.
The new computer model's resolution is “one of the highest yet achieved” for a global climate model that captures the entire Earth and both its atmosphere and oceans, … [emphasis mine]
Were they afraid to model what's coming from the business-as-usual climate chaos that's our current trajectory? If middle-of-the-road (meaning we actually cut down greenhouse gasses significantly) means we'd get 72 super intense hurricanes in the last 19 years of this century, how many will business-as-usual produce? Would it be twice as many, perhaps seven every year ... every year ... year after year ... with no end in sight?
Compounding the problem of fiercer storms, climate change is slowing hurricane speed - especially over land - so raising damage to target areas.
... there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation...
In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates9. Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures...
... tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949–2016, ...
Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. [emphasis mine]
In sum, the "new normal" will be ever more numerous super-intense storms, carrying heavier precipitation, which stall over land.
In case you're eager for this future, send a note of thanks to Trump for increasing US methane emissions to benefit fossil fuel companies. Alternately, rant to your congress-critters.
Those of you living in the Carolinas will be cheered to hear that FEMA money which might have helped you NOW was diverted to pay for separating immigrant children from their parents and imprisoning them.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) released documents late Tuesday showing that the Trump administration transferred nearly $10 million away from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) just ahead of hurricane season in order to fund the White House’s cruel family separation and deportation efforts.