Gaius Publius: Fracking Has Brought the World to the Brink of Disaster

Check out the section titled "Two Degrees Warming Is Less than a Decade Away".  Apparently combining corrected data on past climate with the extent to which our models underestimate temperature acceleration, it's realistic to expect catastrophic warming by 2018 to 2023.

The most recent climate data suggests that the world is on track to cross the two degrees of warming threshold set in the Paris accord in just 10 to 15 years, says [Dr. Anthony Ingraffea, Professor of Engineering Emeritus at Cornell University]...

As drastic as that sounds,... Two degrees warming is more likely to come in less than a decade, perhaps a lot less.

First, note again that his pre-Industrial baseline is likely too high. The world is closer today to +1.3 or +1.4°C warming than it is to +1.1°C if the actual lows of the pre-Industrial period are considered or accounted for. Dr. Michael Mann’s recalculated baseline puts the warming number at +1.2°C as of 2015, and we’ve seen a burst of warming since. 

Second, consider the acceleration that no model has successfully predicted. Everything is happening faster than anyone predicted. 

 Everything in the global warming news is “ahead of schedule” — much of it by a lot. Dr. Ingraffea makes the same point starting at 8:30 in the video. Every scenario in the 2010 paper he discusses, including the “reference” (no intervention) scenario, entirely underestimated what would happen in just the next eight years. [yellow emphasis mine]

And not by a little — by a lot. The key graph is reproduced at the top. The original graph from the paper contained global warming data through 2010 and predictions after that. Dr. Ingraffea added the red dots in the modified graph above to show global warming data for 2011–2017. The red dots are not just above all of the predictions, including the “reference” scenario. They’re above the band of uncertainty around the reference predictions — each one outside the range of outcomes that the models predict are the 95% most certain.

Put another way, the model predicted that each one of the actual 2011–2017 results were less than 5% likely to happen. Each one.

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Replies to This Discussion

This is terrible news, but not unexpected. With current political and religious news, I see little reason to hope for a better outcome. 

What now? Attempt to recover some sanity in our national awareness? Sit back and wait for the inevitable? Get rip, roaring angry and make a terrible fuss? 

I attempt to do a few chores in the garden and greenhouse and simply have no energy. I think it is as much mental as physical weariness. One of my favorite responses to others when they don't want to put in any effort, or if they don't want to work hard is, "What difference will it make 50 years from now?"

Those words come back to kick me in the butt. "It won't make one iota difference if I put in the effort, work hard, or not."

I loved my home; I love my family members; I wish for them as fulfilling a life for them as I had. Adventure, exploration, experimentation, taking risks, enjoying fresh experiences, making mistakes and learning from them. Doing things non-traditional and learning even more. 

Well, I guess if I do what I can, put in what effort I have, work hard, play hard, love hard, in the here and now, be as happy as I can be spending time with each family member and each animal, learning how to love the deep forest as much as I loved my city forest, expressing care and compassion to those around me, appreciating each one for who he or she is. I ask for no more. 

It might have been Ruth who posted something recently on AN about cherishing the small joys and our remaining time, and making as good a life for ourselves and our children as we can, even if we're living through the beginning of the end.

"... work hard, play hard, love hard, in the here and now..."

Amen! ("I believe it!" "What she said!" No spooks needed.)

Professor Jem Bendell challenges mainstream climate science by predicting "ecosystem catastrophes followed by social collapse within current lifetimes". According to Bendell, recent data, especially since 2014, indicates a nonlinear change like never before [i.e. a step change].

image source

The End of the Line – A Climate in Crisis

Bendell carefully reviewed the scientific literature as well as accessing
research institutions to get to the bottom of the current status of climate change. 

To quote Bendell: “Non-linear changes are central importance to understanding climate change based on linear projections and that the changes no longer correlate with the rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions. In other words – ‘runaway climate change’.”

The difference between linear versus non-linear is monumental and crucial to understanding the risks associated with the timing of climate crisis evolving into collapse of society.

 “,...  the most recent scientific data on methane … report of subsea permafrost destabilization in the East Siberian Arctic sea shelf, the latest unprecedented temperatures in the Arctic, and the data in non-linear rises in high-atmosphere methane levels, combine to make it feel like we are about to play Russian Roulette with the entire human race,...

... Many ecosystems will collapse and irreversible risks will be created along the way to 2C [rise]

"… societies will experience disruptions to their basic functioning within less than ten years due to climate stress. Such disruptions include increased levels of malnutrition, starvation, disease, civil conflict and war – and will not avoid affluent nations.” [emphasis mine]




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