The Arctic Sea Ice Forum is abuzz. The sea ice as a whole is rotating clockwise and it's lifted away from Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland with big cracks. Plus there's currently high pressure over the Arctic so there will be clear skies allowing sunshine through. Quote from Frivolousz21
For those who are not aware:
Meteorology speaking this setup is essentially the Holy Grail of having a record-setting Arctic sea of sea ice is sprawling upper level atmospheric ridges of high pressure that exist from top down.
This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies.
We have never had a May 20-30th GARGANTUAN RIDGE that preconditioned the ice for huge June and July loses.
from be cause at Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
All forecasts are for another week of ideal conditions for ice loss . Either the winds or the temperatures would be enough to deepen the threat of accelerated melt .. but both at this time of year .. I have not seen before.
Never has the ice been more mobile .. every change in wind direction , even locally , causes a change in ice movement .. and a warm welcome awaits in Barnetz , Fram and Nare's for much or it .
This is a very different year to last .. if the weather continues to suit export and melt we will be re-writing the records .. b.c.
Comment by A-Team at Arctic Sea Ice Forum
Wind-driven ice motion has been extraordinary this freeze/melt season. By translocating thicker, older ice into zones that will melt out later in the summer, or exporting ice altogether out of the basin via the Fram, Nares and Svalbard-FJL chain plus blocking Kara Sea ice on the import side, wind-driven ice motion may challenge conventional bottom and top melt this year as the leading ice volume loss mechanism. [emphasis mine]
Comment by Alphabet Hotel at Arctic Sea Ice Forum
This whole season is really starting to look very bad. Ice is just pouring down the Nares Strait, the whole pack is rotating like it sometimes does right at the end of the melt season, and we are just now entering the peak six weeks of northern hemisphere insolation. Unless something unexpected shows up to save things, we are in for a wild ride these next six weeks.
A large surface high pressure system has set up shop over the North Pole and is predicted to stay there and intensify over the next ten days. This will bring clear skies, warm temperatures, and near-record and possibly record melting of Arctic sea ice. Over the next ten days, temperatures are predicted to be near or just above freezing over much of the Arctic Ocean--about 2 - 5°C above average--according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.
The upcoming weather pattern is capable of pushing the sea ice to record-low extent by mid-June.
The latest GFS model forecast suggests that the Arctic high will drift to a location a few hundred miles north of Alaska by mid-June and remain strong. This position and strength is characteristic of the Arctic dipole anomaly, which features unusually high pressure over the Arctic Ocean north of North America and unusually low pressure over northeastern Eurasia. This pattern brings in warm southerly winds along the shores of the East Siberian and Chukchi seas, which favors strong ice melt in these sectors and pushes the ice away from the coast, leaving open water. The pressure pattern also causes loss of Arctic sea ice due to winds that transport of ice out of the Arctic Ocean and into the North Atlantic through Fram Strait, to the east of Greenland. [emphasis mine]
Zack Labe tweeted, "Increasing confidence in an Arctic dipole anomaly pattern through early July. This circulation would favor accelerated Arctic sea ice decline."
You recall that the ice pack pulled away from the North American coast. Based on ice concentration maps, the North American coast cleared of ice four weeks sooner than ever before.
Nevin sums up in his blog.
But just one event does not a record melting season make. What does make a melting season, is melting momentum.
…it's going to take some really cold and cloudy weather during July and August to keep 2019 out of the top 3. It happened in 2017 and 2018, when things weren't looking all that great either, but less bad than now. It happened in 2015 and 2016 as well.
In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.”
Thanks for the (upsetting) update.
Weather conditions in the Arctic are more favorable, and the easy to melt ice is gone. So things are looking up. The Central Arctic Basin seems secure for September, from what I gather.
Here's ajouis' view of where the Arctic is heading this melting season:
I am seeing some people here speculating that this season might not be a record breaker, and indeed cab [Central Arctic Basin] area, the one most important to determine the minimum is lagging very far behind other record years. However, volume and extent are at record low and area is close behind. In addition … the cab volume is at an all time low, meaning there has been extreme thinning throughout that region. This is the worst preconditioning possible if any notable event arise or melting momentum continues.
Either we get lucky with an extremely cold august and we dodge the bullet and end up with a relatively high minimum, or, more likely, insolation remains high with severe storms, and we end up with an extremely diminished cab and a new record low by quite a mile. I’d be betting on the second option. [paragraph break added]
Currently 2019 is about equal to 2012, the record lowest sea ice extent year . Here are excerpts from the latest chatter at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.
DrTskoul: … how much warmer 2019 was just compared to 2012. 1-3 degrees warmer over most of the arctic compared to the previous minimum year,
Bbr2314: … the cold is now increasingly becoming focused in the grain-growing regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The crop situation this year across much of the Midwest is now dire. Yields will be double-digit %s below normal.
FishOutofWater: The ECMWF continues to forecast heat pumping out of the Pacific into the Arctic. The latest model run shows typhoon heat and water vapor being pulled into troughs that wave break into the Arctic, creating a massive Arctic heat anomaly. It's nuts. This has been the most persistent ridging/subsidence pattern of any Arctic summer …
Alphabet Hotel: [replying to Wildcatter: Is something up with the oscillation? Looks like it's getting a bit confused. ] I think we may be seeing the kind of chaotic behavior that occurs when a system is transitioning to a new state. There's really no telling what might happen, and all our past history will not be useful if that's what this is.
The 2019 drama has mostly passed. Since there are no indications that a huge Arctic cyclone will appear to beat up the ice, as happened in 2012, second lowest extent is in the cards. Insolation (sunshine) is about gone for the central Arctic basin.
The only bad news at Arctic Sea Ice Forum was from
"Norwegian researchers warned the Arctic Council in May that the North's chilled stratified waters…— were already "shifting" to resemble mixed Atlantic waters because of temperature rises."
2019 was tied for second lowest Arctic sea ice extent.