Remember how deniers disparaged climate models for not accurately predicting the effect of clouds? Community Earth System Model version 1.2 [CESM1.2] fixed that. The rate of warming increases dramatically as CO2 rises. In other words equilibrium climate sensitivity gets worse and worse. It's 4.2 now, but with the warming if greenhouse gases continue to rise as they are, it will be more than 6.6 by century's end. CESM1.2 accurately predicted the global warming which happened in the Eocene.
Another way of stating this result is that the climate of the Early Eocene became increasingly sensitive to additional carbon dioxide as the planet warmed."It is a scary finding because it indicates that the temperature response to an increase in carbon dioxide in the future might be larger than the response to the same increase in CO2 now. This is not good news for us."
Once we lose control of positive feedbacks like melting permafrost, it seems that transformation of Earth into Hell Planet will be fast. Six or seven degrees of warming by 2100! When even four degree rise is incompatible with organized society.
Kari Marie Norgaard describes the way everyone's sense of reality is socially constructed. Our "collectively constructed sense of normal everyday life" rests upon an unaware socialization: to what we pay attention and what we ignore, what we remember and what we don't bother to remember. Our perception itself is socially shaped, part of the community outlook we adopt, which defines sanity for us.
Our gut feeling of power and security, which rests upon such community-driven expectations, can be instantly shattered by the other kind of reality, harsh physical limits, for example of a tsunami or war.
In about 11 years the everyday reality to which you and I cling for sanity will rend, as the public realizes we can't un-light the matches we've so casually struck -- burning forests, dying oceans, methane-belching lakes, burning soil that used to be frozen.
Roger Hallan compares our climate situation to what happens when people realize they can't win in Monopoly. Your chances to win in Monopoly plummet to something like 1 in 10 thousand if you lose all properties. His nephew would throw down his pieces and storm out.
What do you think will happen when 7.5 billion people realize that an all out global war footing to stop climate chaos has a similar chance of saving the future -- of halting total self-extermination? Why is it that nobody else sees a nihilistic event horizon, barely over a decade hence?
Part of me imagines that some climate deniers forsee such realization as their win. If there's nothing anyone can do, burning more fossil fuel is justified. They'll get even richer and more powerful.
Why is the prospect of blanket insanity so invisible? Why don't we figure out that our sense of everyday reality has an expiration date, when we read climate articles such as these?
This is scary stuff! We used to fear for our grandchildren. It is now time to fear for ourselves and our children!
Here's another reference:Two French climate models consistently predict a pronounced global ...g
Simulations with the two new French models, as well as with models from other countries that are already available, predict that by 2100 warming will be more severe than that forecast in previous versions in 2012, especially for the most pessimistic emission scenarios.
In the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5 8.5 – rapid economic growth driven by fossil fuels), the rise in mean global temperature7 is likely to reach 6 to 7 °C by 2100, which is 1 °C higher than in previous estimates. Only one of the socio-economic scenarios (SSP1 1.9 - marked by strong international cooperation and giving priority to sustainable development) enables temperatures to remain below the 2°C global warming target, at the cost of very significant mitigation efforts and of temporarily exceeding this target during the course of the century. [emphasis mine]
Perhaps not enough people can visualize an entire species going mad at once because they weren't Babylon 5 fans. It happened twice in that series. Once with a species in denial of scientific explanation of pandemic illness, clinging to their religious explanation and going extinct as a result. The second case was the Mimbari themselves, who later also collectively regained their sanity.