A new study helps civil engineers account for ongoing climate change in infrastructure design
As the Earth warms, new stresses are applied to our buildings, bridges, roads, houses, and other structures.
... planning for infrastructure relies upon a reasonable estimation of future climate changes. To help quantify such an estimate for the civil engineering community, a recent paper was published by the Institution of Civil Engineering Journal of Forensic Engineering...
In the paper, we showed that we expect the Earth to warm by about 4°C more (7°F) over the present temperature by the year 2100.
In the paper, we conclude that engineers know enough to begin to prepare.
So in 83 years models predict 4°C more than today's 1.1°C to 1.2°C rise, roughly 5.2 °C rise. And engineers "know enough to begin to prepare" building buildings and bridges now, that will serve us well after civilization collapsed at around 4°C rise. Good to know. That's reassuring. So if your kid, born now, dies during civilization's collapse at the age of 60, his or her house/road/bridge will do fine in the post-apocalypse world where the hundreds of nuclear power plants along coastlines and tidal rivers will have long since gone underwater.
What a helpful plan.
Just a reminder of the additional rise already locked in from entropicman at RobertScribbler.
Using IPCC mid-range assumptions one can calculate how much warming has already been locked in. If we stopped emitting tomorrow, in thirty years time we would still see 1.6C due to 400ppm of CO2 alone. Add in other greenhouse gases and we have 525ppm CO2e. That will warm us by 2.6C. [emphasis mine]
Sometimes I wonder how serious scientists can publish this stuff with a straight face.