Land plants' carbon absorption already peaked in 2006, which we we didn't expect till 2030. Now soil carbon has a tipping point we didn't consider. Every new discovery seems to shorten our window to save ourselves.

Earth warming to climate tipping point, warns study

A warmer world will release vast volumes of carbon into the atmosphere, potentially triggering dangerous climate change, scientists warn.

Writing in journal Nature, they project that an increase of 1C (1.8F) will release an additional 55 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere by 2050.

This could trigger a "positive feedback" and push the planet's climate system past the point of no-return.

Previous assessments have not taken carbon released by soil into account.

In their Nature paper, an international team of scientists said that the majority of the Earth's terrestrial store of carbon was in the soil.

They warned that as the world warmed, organisms living in the planet's soils would become more active, resulting in more carbon being released into the atmosphere - exacerbating warming.

"There have been concerns about this positive feedback for a long, long time," said lead author Thomas Crowther, who conducted the research...

... the losses are going to be really considerable."

Using data stretching over 20 years from 49 sites across the globe, the team observed that global carbon stocks would fall by up to 55 petagrams (55 billion tonnes) under a business-as-usual scenario, which is roughly equivalent to adding the emissions from a nation the size of the US.

... our projection is that we are going to lose 55 petgrams, that's 55 trillion kilograms by 2050. This process is only going to accelerate and accelerate. [emphasis mine]

Increased activity of microbes and soil animals, such as worms, would be

the source of the additional carbon emissions

Robert Scribbler comments,

It’s also worth noting that 55 billion tons of carbon is roughly equal to 25 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. So adding that much over the next 35 years basically increases the net atmospheric CO2 accumulation rate by 0.7 ppm each year.

Continuing to burn fossil fuels has put us in a bad situation where Earth’s own carbon responses are being locked in.

... though it appears now that some carbon feedbacks are locked in, what we lock in by continuing on the BAU or near BAU path is an absolutely catastrophic situation. The urgency to halt emissions now could not be sharper. [emphasis mine]

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Replies to This Discussion

Hear Dr Thomas Crowther on this study,

Climate change escalating so fast it is 'beyond point of no return'

“It’s fair to say we have passed the point of no return on global warming and we can’t reverse the effects, but certainly we can dampen them,” said the biodiversity expert.

“Climate change may be considerably more rapid than we thought it was.”

“Our study shows that this major feedback has already certainly started, and it will have a significant impact on the climate in the coming decades. This information will be critical as we strive to understand how the climate is going to change in the future.”

“I think this is catastrophic for humanity,” said Dr Crowther.

Robert Scribbler explains the significance of this soil carbon release.

What this means is that even if all of human fossil fuel emissions stop, the Earth environment, from this single source, will generate about the same carbon emission as all of the world’s fossil fuel industry did during the middle of the 20th Century. And that, if human emissions do not stop, then the pace of global warming of the oceans, ice sheets, and atmosphere is set to accelerate in a runaway warming event over the next 85 years.

When initial warming caused by fossil fuel burning pumps more carbon out of the global environment, we call this an amplifying feedback. It’s a critical climate tipping point when the global carbon system in the natural environment starts to run away from us.

And it is also worth noting that the study categorizes its own findings as conservative estimates. That the world could, as an outside risk, see as much as four times the amount of carbon feedback ...

... amplifying carbon feedbacks from the Earth environment are probably starting to happen on a large scale now.

... even the optimists at this time think that we are on the cusp of runaway catastrophic global warming. That the time to urgently act is now.

Some part of me hopes that the rapidly declining environment will wake up the US citizenry, as the new administration demonstrates its total venality and incompetence, so that in four years we find the courage to turn toward global cooperation and sustainability. But we're already locked into a horror movie scenario, and that hope seems a will o' wisp.

What counts now in the US as "Conservatism" seems to have a great deal in common with a religion. People are told what to believe, they believe what they are told, and even considering what you observe is contrary to what they are told is akin to heresy. So, as this year was almost balmy in the Arctic - away from what most people observe - that this spring has been very warm and very wet, and my own "back-of-the-envelope" calculations from the intersection of several papers on oceanic thermocline changes, predict that it will change later this month from "warm and wet" toward "hot and muggy" even in historically drier regions of continents - especially North America, Africa, and parts of Europe, that the American public will continue to believe that it's a hoax, a Chinese-made thing, or even some wild conspiracy-based things like some of the absurd things claimed about HAARP.

As some areas become completely non-livable, more climate refugees will be on the move. That will continue to escalate as years go on, and.... OH DEAR!

I agree,  "OH DEAR!"

An important new study just released in Nature- A must read for anyone interested in climate change:

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Medhaug, Iselin
AU  - Stolpe, Martin B.
AU  - Fischer, Erich M.
AU  - Knutti, Reto
TI  - Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
JA  - Nature
PY  - 2017/05/04/print
VL  - 545
IS  - 7652
SP  - 41
EP  - 47
PB  - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
SN  - 0028-0836
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22315
L3  - 10.1038/nature22315
M3  - Analysis
AB  - Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the global warming hiatus, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of hiatus and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
ER  - 

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