Dr Judith Curry adds nuance to Climate Change models, capturing the way excess heat propagates through ocean, ice and atmospheric large-scale circulation regimes which self-organize into a collective tempo.
Marcia Wyatt and Judith Curry, point to the so-called 'stadium-wave' signal that propagates like the cheer at sporting events whereby sections of sports fans seated in a stadium stand and sit as a 'wave' propagates through the audience. In like manner, the 'stadium wave' climate signal propagates across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo.
... two key ingredients to the propagation and maintenance of this stadium wave signal: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and sea ice extent in the Eurasian Arctic shelf seas. The AMO sets the signal's tempo ... [emphasis mine]
... , while the sea ice bridges communication between ocean and atmosphere.
The oscillatory nature of the signal can be thought of in terms of 'braking,' in which positive and negative feedbacks interact to support reversals of the circulation regimes. As a result, climate regimes -- multiple-decade intervals of warming or cooling -- evolve in a spatially and temporally ordered manner. While not strictly periodic in occurrence, their repetition is regular -- the order of quasi-oscillatory events remains consistent. Wyatt's thesis found that the stadium wave signal has existed for at least 300 years.
The stadium wave periodically enhances or dampens the trend of long-term rising temperatures, which may explain the recent hiatus in rising global surface temperatures.
"The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s ...
"Current climate models are overly damped and deterministic, focusing on the impacts of external forcing rather than simulating the natural internal variability associated with nonlinear interactions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system," Curry said. [emphasis mine]
This is a simple demonstration of coupled oscillation.
The sophistication of this work by Marcia Wyatt and Judith Curry, when integrated into mainstream climate models, will enable us to predict Climate Destabilization more accurately. It comes out at the same time as work showing climate change can happen very fast , such as 13 years instead of 10,000 years.
and alarming predictions of how quickly cities face entirely new climates, where the average temperature is higher than their previous hottest temperature to date, based on current models.
Here's an interactive map to find out when, give or take five years, your city will average hotter than its previous hottest year.
Thanks; that's much easier to visualize!
I hope we won't have to wait until 2047 (when Washington DC and New York City pass the "old averages have nothing to do with the climate" threshold) for effective action.
The problem is that the longer we wait, the less ability we'll have to respond. Our economy will be too overwhelmed with disaster response.