The awful truth about climate change no one wants to admit

Survivable IPCC Projections Are Based On Science Fiction

What's it like for a civilization to hide from approaching doom? For a small group of billionaires to trick everyone until it's too late?

How could they create a sly looming destruction that no one will mention? To steal meaning, to suck away all life ahead - while horror seeps into reality.

What's the psychology of our complicity?

In a doomed civilization, language tricks abound.

Leaders' and experts' stories shift around.

What makes this idea of projected large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) even more perverse is the talk by policymakers of a “carbon budget”. This refers to the amount of fossil fuel that can be burned before we are at risk of reaching a 2°C rise in global mean temperature. It is quite clear that we have no carbon budget whatsoever. The account, far from being in surplus, is horrendously overdrawn. To claim we have a few decades of safely burning coal, oil and gas is an utter nonsense.

The emissions to date are colossal and the warming effect is delayed by around 40 years. Therefore, even if we halt emissions, we know there is much more warming to come. That will also set off other positive feedbacks along the way that will amplify the warming further, stretching over centuries.[emphasis mine]  Nick Breeze

Humans are subject to intense status quo bias. Especially on the conservative end of the psychological spectrum — which is the direction all humans move when they feel frightened or under threat ...

Climate scientists, Geden says, feel pressure to provide the good news. ... And so they construct models showing that it is possible to hit the 2°C target. The message is always, "We're running out of time; we've only got five or 10 years to turn things around, but we can do it if we put our minds to it."

That was the message in 1990, in 2000, in 2010. How can we still have five or 10 years left? The answer, Geden says, is that scientists are baking increasingly unrealistic assumptions into their models.

The scenarios that show a high likelihood of avoiding 2°C also presume policy regimes that are positively utopian: a rising price on carbon, harmonized across every country in the world; the availability, maturation, and rapid deployment of every known low-carbon technology; all bets paying off, for 50 years straight.

Now models routinely show 4 or even 6 percent annual reductions, a rate of emissions decline that has never been achieved by anyone, anywhere, ever, much less consistently over 50 years. [emphasis mine] David Roberts

It's become clear that the IPCC projections for achieving only a 2°C rise are based on fantasy. We're living out the worst scenario RCP8.5. Technologies to remove carbon from the air, that are supposed to save us, don't exist. The official science used by politicians isn't technically a lie.

...after all, they didn't *hide* the unrealistic assumptions, they are right there in Appendix 17 for anyone interested. David Roberts

Scientists' made-to-seem-possible projections work like deceiving to the public.

May CO2 Peak Shows Trend Is Up, Up, Up

... not only is the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere going up every year, the amount by which it is doing so is accelerating;...

Currently humanity is on the worst case scenario of RCP 8.5 which takes us to 2°C warming by mid century and 4°C warming by the end of the century. As Professor Schellnhuber, from Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) said, “the difference between two and four degrees is human civilisation

In 2009 the International Union of Forest Research Organisations delivered a report to the UN that stated that the natural carbon sink of trees could be lost at a 2.5°C temperature increase. The ranges for RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 both take us over 2.5°C and any idea that we can survive when the tree sink flips from being a carbon sink to a carbon source is delusional. [emphasis mine] Nick Breeze

I constantly read of newly discovered positive feedbacks left out of the IPCC projections. Their potential synergy boggles the mind. While "the future" is being hollowed out, a facade of normalcy grips everyone.

And nobody wants to be the one to pee in the punch bowl. David Roberts

This is our trajectory, as I see it.

source for diagrams b,c, and d

That's crossing a tipping point. We have already crossed one with Arctic Ice, sooo many more waiting.

Irreversible catastrophic changes lie ahead, brought to you by billionaire eco terrorists.

(The "billionaire eco terrorists" framing thanks to Robert Hunziker in Methane’s Danger Accelerating.)

 

Humans are subject to intense status quo bias. Especially on the conservative end of the psychological spectrum — which is the direction all humans move when they feel frightened or under threat ...

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