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Climate Concerns

The "CLIMATE CONCERNS" group is dedicated to discussion regarding the topic of the ever present and serious issue of changes to our climate due to the introduction into the atmosphere of human induced effects which prove harmful to the environment and which eventually may prove destructive to our planet. 

Members: 50
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Jet Stream Mayhem begins Tues

Started by Ruth Anthony-Gardner. Last reply by Ruth Anthony-Gardner yesterday. 3 Replies

Siberian air…Continue

Tags: jet stream waves

Framing Climate Destabilization

Started by Ruth Anthony-Gardner. Last reply by Joan Denoo Nov 8. 19 Replies

The words we use and the images they evoke shape public comprehension of Catastrophic Climate Destabilization's immanence. Here are a few terms from the past few days. It's a tiny…Continue

Tags: communicating climate science, Climate Destabilization, framing

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Comment by Donald L. Engel on March 14, 2016 at 1:14pm

Ruth, the CO2 levels do not follow the temperature day by day,  month by month, or even year by  year.  An increase in CO2 is the result of an increase in temperature 800 years ago  That's right, eight hundred years ago.

Comment by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on March 14, 2016 at 12:42pm

Donald, building underground houses is likely to be a future trend.

Actually, Čenek, we're in a low solar output cycle right now. Nobody attributes the unprecedented rise in CO2 in 2015 to solar output, unless you're looking at a denier site.

image source

Stefan Rahmstorf, from Germany's Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research says, "We are in a kind of climate emergency now." The previous worst February increase after a Super El Nino was 0.47°C rise above that month's global average compared to 1951-1980. When the final numbers were in, February was a 1.35°C rise. So even though one expects a warmer February coming off of an El Nino, this time was way off the charts. NASA Drops Major Bomb in 'March Toward Ever-Warmer Planet'

Comment by Čenek Sekavec on March 9, 2016 at 1:13am

Increased solar output releases carbon gasses that were trapped in permafrost, ice, et al.  Though undesirable the gasses aren't the cause. When the sun begins it's cooling cycle the gasses will get pulled out of the air again by biological processes.  

Don you are spot on. Even though we humans think we have influence on the earth we haven't even matched the lowly trilobite when it comes to altering the climate and structure of the planet. And other natural processes dwarf both us and our trilobite primogeniture.

Comment by Donald L. Engel on March 4, 2016 at 12:52pm

Each of the vertical lines on the chart below represents 10,000 years,

And Ruth, it doesn't matter if it is safe for us or not.  The earth doesn't care about us.  We're going to have to do whatever it takes to survive.  If I were a young man right now, I would build a house underground, where it would be a little cooler.

Comment by Donald L. Engel on March 4, 2016 at 12:33pm

No, Ruth, I wasn't being sarcastic.  All along they've been saying that the global temperature has been rising at about 1.5 degrees per century since the end of the Little Ice Age.  Right now we are about what the temperature was during the Medieval Warm Period.  They were growing grapes in Greenland during that time frame.  I posted a graph of he Vostok Ice Core on one of these threads, and it shows that we are "NEARING"  (we're not there yet), but NEARING the temperatures of the past four warming periods after their respective ice ages..

Comment by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on March 4, 2016 at 11:24am
Comment by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on March 4, 2016 at 11:18am

Or were you being sarcastic? I'm not good at sarcasm, Donald, so I'm not sure.

Comment by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on March 4, 2016 at 11:17am

Not as bad as we thought? Well, Donald, March 3rd the daily Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly hit 2°C rise above preindustrial.

Our Hemisphere’s Temperature Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone

Just because a temperature rise is part of a trend, doesn't make that rise safe.

Comment by Donald L. Engel on March 3, 2016 at 11:02pm

Well then, everything is on schedule, Ruth.  The average global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees every 100 years since the end of the Little Ice Age.  I guess things aren't as bad as we thought.

Comment by Ruth Anthony-Gardner on March 3, 2016 at 6:20pm

If you just look at monthly temperature departures, February was extraordinary. Preliminary data indicate it was between 1.56 °C and 1.66 °C above 1880's February values. When an El Nino fizzles out, February tends to be heated the most, so this suggests that the 2016 annual average might come in at 1.2 to 1.3 °C above preindustrial.

The Roof is On Fire — Looks like February of 2016 Was 1.5 to 1.7 C ...

The GFS model shows temperatures averaged 1.01 C above the already significantly hotter than normal 1981-2010 baseline. Subsequent observations from separate sources have confirmed this dramatic February temperature spike. We await NASA, NOAA, and JMA observations for a final confirmation.

Nick Stokes, a retired climate scientist and blogger … published an analysis of the recently released preliminary data fro...… According to this analysis, February temperatures may have been as much as 1.44 C hotter than the 1951 to 1980 NASA baseline. Converting to departures from 1880s values, if these preliminary estimates prove correct, would put the GISS figure at an extreme 1.66 C hotter than 1880s levels for February. If GISS runs 0.1 C cooler than NCAR conversions, as it has over the past few months, then the 1880 to February 2016 temperature rise would be about 1.56 C.

Putting these numbers into context, it looks like we may have already crossed the 1.5 C threshold above 1880s values in the monthly measure during February.

But we should be very clear that monthly departures are not annual departures and the yearly measure for 2016 is less likely to hit or exceed a 1.5 C departure. It’s fair to say, though, that 1.5 C annual departures are imminent and will likely appear within 5-20 years.

If we use the 1997-1998 El Nino year as a baseline,… assuming 2016 will continue to see Equatorial sea surface temperatures continue to cool, we may be looking at a 1.2 to 1.3 C above 1880s average for this year.

Notice how parts of the Arctic are in the above 12 degree C warmer anomaly range.

It's cut down the days ice would freeze above 80° latitude.

 

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