What s going on in Iran now? (Protests, election and ...)

I have some foreign friends (almost all of them are atheist) who have asked me same questions about new situations of Iran so I decided to write this post to answer them in one place . If you want to know my view about this before the election or you need some more info please visit my previous post.

First of all What happened ?
I don't write about it very much because you can find about it in many news sites. In this election Mir hosein Mosavi had the highest chance to be elected probably the second chance belonged to Mehdi Karoobi and then Ahmadi nejad and Mohsen Rezai . Most people though that whether Mosavi would won the election in first stage (if he had won more than 50% of votes) or the result of election would be revealed in the second stage(if none of candidates could gain more than 50%)
in election day (12th of june) the atmosphere of society was strange : the government disabled Short Message Service of mobiles phones however most people (they announced 85%) participated in this elections but there were some signs that Ahmadinjead's government didn't like it and because of it a few people couldn't vote! The most strange thing happened a few hours (about 2 hour) after end of the election . They began to announce the results(they count ballot by hand)!!! about 10 hours later ahamdinejad was the winner with a breaking a record in all election in the history of Iran .supreme leader the most powerful man in Iran(a mullah) admit it by sending a congratulation message. For most people it was obvious that it is just Ahmadinjead's swindler government designed result .although from the previous day the government had sent many police and anti riot forces to streets in Tehran many people without any call went to streets to object and it caused some violences . In this day the government intensified internet filtering (blocking all preposition's sites and some popular sites like youtube and facebook again and for the first time yahoo messenger[it s very popular messenger among Iraninans] ) meanwhile in the next days the objections got stronger and spread out to other large cities they repressed harder . Even in some cities they disabled mobile phones completely but in TV Ahamdinejad called all this something like unimportant discontent after a football match . This was a summary of what happened .

Now some of my points of views :

1 they have lost a large part of their legitimacy and if they insist on Ahmadinejad's remaining they will lost the whole of their legitimacy. And most of people will be against them this time clearly so in this condition they can just govern in very militaristic atmosphere . However it s not good for them too but it is one of their two options . If they accept to falsify the election and perhaps a new election in this case the loose many things too . In fact in this scenario they have confessed to their crimes in the election and this victory of people encourage them for future events . So changing the people votes was really a foolish mistakes (all candidate believes in the bases of ISLAMIC republic and none of them (specially Mosavi) had proposed a fundamental change).

2 many of these protesters were not pro Mosavi or pro Karoobi (like myself) they just vote for them and for many of their main reason was to prevent Ahmadinejad(again like myself) but at this time it seems that they need and want a leader and the only choice is Mosavi so this movement has became a green movement (green was the color of mosavi's fans)

3 I am happy to have voted because now i feel i have right to say "WHERE IS MY VOTE?" (even for a mullah [read my previous post for more comment])

What will happen?

I don't know! Perhaps the worst scenario: they will kill and arrest many of protesters and continue to govern in a militaristic atmosphere and people will know that reforming in ISLAMIC republic(!!!) is absolutely impossible .

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Comment by unholyroller on June 18, 2009 at 11:42pm
OA....thanks for your insider POV. Happy to hear you are still safe. Be very careful.. opressive regimes will stop at nothing to root out all dissadents. I wish you all my best in trying to move your country toward a freer way of life. Keep us posted on events. Our government and news media are less than truthful in reporting events in your part of the world.
Comment by Gecko, Seth...brother of Richie! on June 17, 2009 at 2:58pm
OA, Ya pick the least of these evils and go with it. I have no problem with that action.
Question, based on a couple of documentaries, and some reading, I have thought foe several years that the young in Iran were becoming more dissident, more anti-theocracy. If this is the case would it stand to reason that the toppling of the religious conservative govt. could and should come from within? All my best brother.
Comment by ObscureAtheist on June 17, 2009 at 1:58pm
Meabh and Flech thank you
Comment by ObscureAtheist on June 17, 2009 at 1:45pm
Josh thank you for your comment :)
if you meant in internet yes i feel safe because i use some anti filter and anonymity softwares when i use internet .
i am not an expert (or even an amateur in political philosophy) but i know that new generations themselves slowly move toward some western values like secularism or liberalism or ... in recent years technology has speeded it up. i think outside of Iran can help it but not by invasion or explicit invitation . Shah just was a dictator too even a religious dictator he had no plan for open society or ...
Ahmadinejad is a real nightmare for Iran and no one can be worse than him(his explicit lies in front of cameras and preaching superstitions and causing deep economic problem when oil was 150$ a barrel and ...) .yes Mosavi is very religious too (this was one of my reason that i didn't vote for him) but if he become president he will be another center of power so power will be less centerlized and i think it s good. in fact centralization of power is the most important source of corruption .(he will be a rival for Khamenei)
Comment by ObscureAtheist on June 17, 2009 at 12:54pm
Nate :
you are welcome :)
yes i see. it s growing but still is very weak.
Comment by Little Name Atheist on June 17, 2009 at 10:16am
I hope no one would criticise you for voting for a mullah. He seemed the best candidate out of all of them.

Happy to hear from you, OA, and that you can still access the Internet.
Comment by Nate on June 17, 2009 at 9:05am
Thanks for the explanations and updates.

Do you see a growing strength amongst the secularists in Iran?

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